Japon : la TV sur mobile est populaire, mais sans modèle économique
Si une étude estime que 10% des abonnés dans le monde auront adopté la TV sur mobile en 2009, ces chiffres seront bien supérieurs au Japon et en Corée du Sud, où ces offres connaissent un succès certain. Mais pour l'instant, si on écarte les problèmes d'autonomie des terminaux, le plus gros souci de l'industrie est de trouver un modèle économique qui tienne la route. L'équilibre sera délicat à trouver entre les opérateurs - qui se retrouvent de facto relégués au rôle de broadcaster - et les possesseurs de contenu.
The 53-year-old managing director at an investment firm bought it so he could watch business news, follow his baseball team and tune in to the World Cup—whether he's on a business trip or out drinking with friends.
"It really is very good. The only trouble I have is that every so often I watch too long and end up with a dead battery. That's why I carry a second phone around with me now," he said.
Many analysts predict rapid growth for TV cellphones. Devices like car navigation systems and Nintendo Co. Ltd.'s DS portable game player will also come equipped for the service.
Those looking to profit range from top mobile phone operator NTT DoCoMo Inc to digital entertainment companies such as Index Holdings but it remains to be seen whether the market becomes a huge money maker or a niche market.
Research firm Gartner predicts mobile video and TV services will be adopted by at least 10 percent of wireless subscribers by 2009. Japan along with neighboring South Korea are expected to be at the forefront.
Japanese cellphone users, which number 92 million, on average upgrade their cellphones every 18 months to two years and are accustomed to using their phones for email, surfing the Net and increasingly to buy goods and services.
WANTED—A BUSINESS MODEL
Unlike analog TV for mobile devices, the new service offers picture quality that is extremely clear even when the user is moving. Of course, the screen is much smaller that home TVs and constant viewing will run down your cellphone battery after around three hours.
Service is available in Tokyo and other large cities. Although mobile TV could be popular on long train commutes, it won't help those that ride the subway where reception is poor.
Programming is currently the same as regular TV broadcasts, which means it's free. Media and analyst estimates put current digital TV cellphone shipments between 600,000 to 1 million—a market still too small to generate new advertising revenue.
Those two factors make it tough to make money.
"Viable business models haven't really appeared yet," says Tomoyoshi Kuzushima, an information and telecommunications consultant at Nomura Research Institute.
Industry hopes are pinned on TV-linked e-commerce—links that guide viewers to buy products they may see on their favorite TV shows, as well as advertising.
But substantial profits won't be seen before 2008 when broadcasting rules change to allow specialized programming for mobile devices such as shopping channels and auctions.
Kuzushima predicts Japan's digital broadcasts will be received on some 10.8 million cellphones by 2008 but the broadcast market for mobile devices will only be worth 9.1 billion yen ($79 million).
By 2010, he expects TV cellphones to climb to 24.8 million units and estimates the market at 50 billion yen.
CARRIERS HAVE IT HARDER
Industry sources say Japan's mobile phone operators and broadcasters have yet to haggle over how to divide potential earnings of new businesses. But carriers are expected to be on the backfoot as it is broadcasters who have the programs.
Being competitive in video content is a must for the carriers who face a saturated market, a shift to flat rate fees and from this year, a new rule allowing users to keep their phone numbers, making it easier for them to switch operators.
Broadcasters will have it easier as they can just develop their existing advertising business model, analysts say.
Takayoshi Koike, media analyst at Deutsche Securities is particularly bullish, calling broadcasts to TV cellphones a huge business opportunity.
"First, they can charge more for advertising because they have more reach," he said. "Second, they will be able to encourage viewers to conduct e-commerce as their top pages could function like an Internet portal."
NTT DoCoMo has been the most active in getting together with broadcasters. It has 2.6 percent stake in Fuji Television Network Inc., the nation's biggest broadcaster and has also teamed up with Nippon Television Network Corp. to look at developing content for mobile TV.
KDDI Corp. has taken a different tack. Media reports put Japan's second-biggest mobile operator well ahead in TV cellphone sales. They sell much cheaper than rival versions although analysts say this is likely due to its heftier subsidies offered to retailers.
At the moment though, it seems the only sure beneficiaries are the handset makers like Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. Ltd., NEC Corp. and Sharp Corp.
